A independência do Banco Central e a inflação: uma análise da relação entre autonomia e estabilidade de preços no Brasil

Abstract

This monograph aims to test the theory of Central Bank Independence. To this end, it seeks to evaluate the possible relationships between BACEN independence and relevant economic variables, especially inflation. The main focus is to examine whether there is a relationship between greater autonomy of the monetary authority and price stability. An Ordinary Least Squares model was applied for the period between 1995 and 2024 and found signs that higher levels of turnover may be associated with higher inflation, when using turnover as a proxy for the degree of real independence. However, there does not appear to be a relationship between inflation and the Central Bank's legal independence index (BCI) for the Brazilian data, which may indicate that the institution's formal autonomy, although essential for economic predictability and the credibility of monetary policy, does not, by itself, guarantee inflation control. Another important aspect is that the Brazilian case tends to show that the stability of monetary policy and the independence of the Central Bank are relevant factors for a predictable economic environment, but insufficient to contain inflation if they are not accompanied by a responsible fiscal policy and a favorable macroeconomic context.