Impacto econômico do polo automotivo do grupo Stellantis na população de baixa renda do município de Goiana - PE

Abstract

The present article aimed to analyze the economic impact of attracting the automotive hub of the Stellantis group (Fiat/Jeep) on the income level of low-income individuals in the municipality of Goiana. These individuals are characterized by their presence in the “CadÚnico” (Cadastro Único para Programas Sociais do Governo Federal), therefore, they are part of families with a monthly income per person of up to half the minimum wage or a total monthly family income of up to three minimum wages. The databases used were made available by the Ministry of Development and Social Assistance, Family, and Hunger Combat, through the Secretariat of Evaluation, Information Management, and CadÚnico (SAGICAD). The model estimation was carried out using the non-experimental method "differences in differences." Initial results indicated a positive difference in the income level of the inhabitants of the municipality of Goiana (treatment group) compared to those of other municipalities in the Pernambuco Mata mesoregion, which were used as a control group. However, the robustness test ("placebo" test) carried out afterwards did not allow us to conclude whether this positive effect could indeed be attributed to the treatment, i.e., the presence of the factory, or some other idiosyncratic change, most likely because the factory had already been notably influencing the economy of the municipality of Goiana since the beginning of its construction.