Estudo de técnicas preditivas para o auxílio a gestores na pandemia de COVID-19

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to propose an alternative to exploratory statistical surveys, to support the decision-making of managers, during the confrontation of the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, a methodology was created, using machine learning to provide a new tool for predicting deaths caused by COVID-19, from open data that contain sanitary, demographic and population characteristics. In such a way that, from this study, an artificial intelligence model can be developed capable of helping to face the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the 3 artificial intelligence algorithms used (Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine and Multilayer Perceptron), the model based on Support Vector Machine showed the best performance, because it has the lowest Mean Absolute Error, a metric used to measure the quality of regression-based artificial intelligence models.