Crédito, endividamento e inadimplência das famílias pernambucanas: uma análise para o período de 2003 a 2020

Abstract

This work aims to analyze the evolution of credit and its effects in relation to indebtedness, default, GDP and consumption of Pernambuco families in the period from 2003 to 2020. The literature shows that credit expansion, in addition to stimulating consumption and income positively, increases indebtedness and, in the long run, can lead to default when combined with an unfavorable economic situation. The period analyzed comprises a phase of economic growth with significant credit expansion and increased indebtedness (2003-2010) followed by a phase of moderate credit growth and political and economic crises, which ended up preventing the economy from maintaining a positive growth trajectory . In 2020, when the state economy was expected to return to a favorable situation and recover, the economy was surprised by the new coronavirus pandemic, which strongly affects Brazil and Pernambuco. Based on this context, a scientific, bibliographical and descriptive research was carried out, and, based on the analysis of secondary data, obtained indirectly, it can be concluded that: in the period from 2003 to 2010, there was a significant increase in credit for the Pernambuco families. This credit increase stimulated consumption and GDP, increased household indebtedness, but did not negatively impact the delinquency rate, which had a downward trajectory. In the second period, 2011 to 2020, credit expansion was smaller, but the level of indebtedness of families was high due to the previous phase. In the context of uncertainties generated by the economic crisis, political instability and pandemic crisis, credit was not enough to stimulate consumption, affecting the performance of the state's GDP, but these factors did not lead to an increase in default, which remained at rates lower than those observed in the previous period.