Avaliação dos determinantes da criminalidade no estado de Pernambuco

Abstract

This work analyzes the determinants of crime inthe municipalities of Pernambuco between 2011 and 2016, and it is based on the theoretical model of Becker (1968), Brazilian economic literature and the dynamics of crime observed in Pernambuco. For this purpose, information was collectedfrom SDS/PE, IBGE, PNAD, RAIS and IPEAthat allowed the elaboration of two empirical models of crimes in panel data. The empirical results obtained in the estimations of the models were consistent with the economic crime literature and showed that, for the CVLI model (homicides, lesions followed by death.and robberies), the variables: average income, urbanization rate, population occupation rate, occurrences related to drug trafficking and CVP rates (robberies)are determining factors for the increase of crime in Pernambuco. While schooling and number of security professionalsact reducing the problem. For the CVP model, the variables: average income, urbanization rate, number of occurrences linked to drug trafficking, thefts and the number of security professionalswere presented as determinants for the increase of crime in the state. On the other hand, the variables education and occupation have a reducing role in this indicator of crime.