Convergência Condicional da Renda dos Estados Brasileiros: uma análise a luz do modelo de Solow com capital humano

Abstract

In view of the marked inequality that exists in Brazil and the improvement in the macroeconomic environment after the 2000s, this study has as main objective to analyze the hypothesis of per capita income convergence of the Brazilian states in the period from 2006 to 2014. For that, this study was performed based on the production functions of the simple and increased Solow growth models using the theory of absolute and conditional convergence. The analysis was based on the data extracted from RAIS, IPEADATA, National Treasury Secretariat. The method of estimation of results was the multiple linear regression with panel data. The empirical results are consistent with the literature on economic growth, so that investment and human capital positively affect per capita GDP growth. The depreciation parameter (n + g + d) shows a negative relationship with economic growth, as discussed in theory. The empirical analysis indicates that there is presence of both absolute convergence and conditional convergence, however, the convergence velocity increases from 0.06 in the absolute convergence model to 0.13 in the conditional convergence model with human capital. This demonstrates the effect of human capital on the productive potential of Brazilian states in the long-run equilibrium. The results indicate that the public policies carried out during the period of the research had positive effects to reduce intrestadual disparities.