O papel de traços funcionais na resposta de espécies arbóreas da Caatinga às mudanças climáticas

Abstract

Studies show that there will be an increase in global temperature. Dry environments can become even more arid. Evidences indicate that the Caatinga is highly modified by human actions and poorly protected. Attributes such as leaf area, wood density and potential height are linked to resource use by plants, in this way they can be used to better project their potential distribution. It was hypothesized that, with increasing aridity, plants with smaller leaf area, higher wood density and lower potential height would be more favored in future scenarios. We analyzed three climate scenarios, one current and two future for 2081-2100, to simulate the response of functional traits to the effects of climate change regarding the distribution of 90 tree species. We used the MIROC-ES2L climate model for optimistic (SSP2-4.5) and pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels, with a resolution of 2.5 minutes (~ 21.4 km²). The results indicate that plants with larger leaf areas will show less area reduction within the Caatinga. However, wood density and potential height were not well correlated with the model. From the analysis we can infer that leaf area can be used as a functional attribute capable of predicting and explaining the potential distribution of tree species in the Brazilian Caatinga. The Caatinga may present a loss of adequate habitat for occurrences of the species, therefore, it is necessary to develop more sustainable practices for the use of natural resources, as well as the creation of areas of environmental protection.