Análise das Dinâmicas de Transmissão da Mpox em Pernambuco através do uso de Modelo SEIQR com Otimização de Parâmetros

Abstract

In recent years, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of the accuracy of the results of studies related to the evolution and propagation of diseases has become evident, so that scientific authorities have enough inputs to make quick decisions in the containment and prevention of epidemics and mitigate their effects on society and the economy as soon as possible. At the end of July 2022, the Mpox (Monkeypox) outbreak was declared a global health emergency by the WHO, accelerating a possible return to the state of alert for a new pandemic. This work aims to analyze the transmission dynamics of this virus in Pernambuco using the SEIQR compartmental epidemiological model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Quarantineed and Recovered), with data available from July 12 to November 3, 2022. The simulations were performed with the Wolfram Language. Experiments were performed with manual adjustment of the model parameters by a graphical interface and also considering the dynamic adjustment over time intervals, using a non-linear optimization function. The results suggest a possible regression in the spread of the virus in the state between mid-December 2022 and January 2023.