Formação bruta de capital fixo no Nordeste: análise dos efeitos crownding-in e crowding-out de 1995 a 2018

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between public and private investment in the Northeast from 1995 to 2018, specifically whether this relationship was one of complementarity or substitution. This was done in three steps. First, a proxy was developed for Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in the Northeast, for the public and private sectors, and for the selected economic sectors, Agriculture, Industry, Civil Construction and Services, with the objective of creating a series of regional GFCF to be used in the empirical analysis of the determinants of private investment in the Northeast region. In the second stage, based on the economic debate on the determinants of investment, from the main Classical, Neoclassical and Keynesian schools of thought, the model variables were defined, being chosen as determinants of private investment, public investment, GDP, instability index , long-term real interest rate and real exchange rate. Finally, an econometric analysis was performed using the Panel Data methodology and estimators. The results allow us to suggest a crowding-out effect in the Northeast during the analyzed period. When analyzing the relationship in the model with sectorial dummies, the results also suggest the existence of a significant crowding-out effect and in different magnitudes for the sectors of Agriculture, Civil Construction and Industry.