Os potenciais impactos socioeconômicos da flexibilização da Cannabis medicinal no Brasil à luz da teoria dos jogos

Abstract

The present work aims to study, in the light of game theory, the potential socioeconomic impacts of an eventual flexibilization of the cannabis for medicinal purposes in Brazil. The work seeks to investigate which legislation strategy would bring better returns for the players involved: the maintenance of the current system or the change to make access to cannabis in its medicinal form more flexible. We sought to analyze the potential consequences of making this set of laws more flexible for stakeholders: Government, Society, Legalized Industry, and Illegal Industry. All these agents were considered participants in their own Subgame, in which the Government was responsible for moving first and for deciding which strategy to adopt. Having the dilemma between making it more flexible and benefiting from the potential socioeconomic impacts, losing the political capital of the portion contrary to the measure, or not making it more flexible and pleasing the corresponding portion of the population, but bearing the burden of the absence of socioeconomic impacts. As a result, the research concluded that the dominant strategy for the Government player would be to make the laws that affect medical cannabis more flexible, since such change would bring socioeconomic benefits to the country greater than the costs of non-flexibility. The relevance of this study is attributed from the moment that there is a possibility of changing the Brazilian legislation regarding to cannabis, therefore, potential economic and social impacts should be studied.