O mercado exportador de carne bovina brasileiro e a variação no preço doméstico

Abstract

This work sought to analyze the importance of exports to the Brazilian beef market, in order to understand the price formation of the CEPEA/B3 live cattle indicator, one of the main national commodities. Furthermore, the data of variables such as dollar, average income, IPCA, unemployment, soybean prices and its respective effects were analyzed on how it can impact the domestic price of the product. The methodology consists of using logarithmic-scale regression models of the variables, using the ordinary least squares method (OLS) for final estimates, using panel data collected from MAPA, CONAB, CEPEA and IBGE databases, related to their respective variable. The results indicated that beef exports to all countries show a positive effect on the formation of the final price, while the dollar showed an indirect negative correlation, in the time interval considered, from 2003 to 2020.