GAP de ineficiência operacional do PAC e os seus efeitos na infraestrutura regional: uma analise pelo lado da demanda e da oferta

Abstract

This paper analyzes the opportunity cost of PAC represented by the gap between potential and actual investment and the effect on the productive structure of the Brazilian economy.They hypothesize that budgetary interference of the PACreduces the potential effect of investment in infrastructure in the economy. This inefficiency in the medium term makes the expansion of the sector's productive capacity in the country minimal.The methodology used inthe short term analysis seeks to capture the effect of demand using the estimation of the complex Keynesian multiplier in the structure of a Gap of operational inefficiency of the PAC.The verification of structural changes caused in the PAC investment sectors is performed by calculating the locational quotient (QL), the redistribution coefficient (CR) and the restructuring coefficient (Cr).According to the upward values of the gap this represents a reduction of the real effect of the PAC on the economycompared to the potential effect, thus proving the operational inefficiency of the PAC. The CR and Cr values close to zero indicate that productivity changes in 2007compared to 2017 were not significant.